I started by reading the wikipedia page. At that point, the 1⁄3 solution made some sense to me, but I was bothered by the fact that you couldn’t derive it from probability laws. I then read articles by Bostrom and Radford. I spent a lot of time working on the problem, etc. Eventually, I figured out precisely why the 1⁄3 solution is wrong.
Is Wikipedia a stronger authority than me here? Probably. But I know where the argument there fails, so it’s not very convincing.
I started by reading the wikipedia page. At that point, the 1⁄3 solution made some sense to me, but I was bothered by the fact that you couldn’t derive it from probability laws. I then read articles by Bostrom and Radford. I spent a lot of time working on the problem, etc. Eventually, I figured out precisely why the 1⁄3 solution is wrong.
Is Wikipedia a stronger authority than me here? Probably. But I know where the argument there fails, so it’s not very convincing.