The coverage on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem seems much less confused than this post.
I disagree. That’s why I quoted from that site and explained where I think the errors are.
Alas, that site is correct—and your whole post is totally wrong.
Except I showed why it’s wrong. I understand both the 1⁄3 and 1⁄2 solutions. I showed where 1⁄3 reasoning fails.
The coverage on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem seems much less confused than this post.
I disagree. That’s why I quoted from that site and explained where I think the errors are.
Alas, that site is correct—and your whole post is totally wrong.
Except I showed why it’s wrong. I understand both the 1⁄3 and 1⁄2 solutions. I showed where 1⁄3 reasoning fails.