is there anything really relevant about the sleeping/waking/amnesia story here? What if instead the experimenter just went out and asked the next random passerby on the street each time?
Yes, I think that there is something very important about the memory loss/waking.
I don’t think many people here would take the “1/2” approach; they would reason “Since if the die came up 1, there would be 400 interviews, and I am being interviewed, it almost certainly came up 1″.
Yes, I think that there is something very important about the memory loss/waking.
Suppose we perform the really extreme sleeping beauty problem but each interview is with a different person, chose at random from a very large pool.
I don’t think many people here would take the “1/2” approach; they would reason “Since if the die came up 1, there would be 400 interviews, and I am being interviewed, it almost certainly came up 1″.
I’m not sure I understand your “really extreme” formulation fully. Is the amnesia supposed to make the wins in chocolate bars non-cumulative?