Odds(monday and heads : monday and tails : tuesday and heads : tuesday and tails | wakes up)
= Odds(monday and heads : monday and tails : tuesday and heads : tuesday and tails) * Likelihood(wakes up | monday and heads : monday and tails : tuesday and heads : tuesday and tails)
= (1 : 1 : 1 : 1) * (1 : 1 : 0 : 1)
= (1 : 1 : 0 : 1)
= (1/3 : 1/3 : 0 : 1/3)
SB starts out with four equaly likely possibilities. On observing that she wakes up, she eliminates one of them, but does not distinguish between the remaining possiblities. Renormalizing the probabilities gives probability 1⁄3 to the remaining possibilities.
Ugh. That makes no sense. Can you explain why she would update in such a manner?
SB starts out with four equaly likely possibilities. On observing that she wakes up, she eliminates one of them, but does not distinguish between the remaining possiblities. Renormalizing the probabilities gives probability 1⁄3 to the remaining possibilities.