In a symmetric situation without coordination, the equilibrium is all parties advancing as quickly as possible to develop the technology and throwing caution to the wind.
Really? It seems like if I’ve raised my risk level to 99% and the other team has raised their risk level to 98% (they are slightly ahead), one great option for me is to commit not to developing the technology and let the other team develop the technology at risk level ~1%. This gets me an expected utility of 0.99B + 0.01A, which is probably better than the 0.01C + 0.99A that I would otherwise have gotten (assuming I developed the technology first).
I am assuming common knowledge here, but I am not assuming coordination. See also OpenAI Charter.
Interesting. I had the Nash equilibrium in mind, but it’s true that unlike a dollar auction, you can de-escalate, and when you take into account how your opponent will react to you changing your strategy, doing so becomes viable. But then you end up with something like a game of chicken, where ideally, you want to force your opponent to de-escalate first, as this tilts the outcomes toward option C rather than B.
Really? It seems like if I’ve raised my risk level to 99% and the other team has raised their risk level to 98% (they are slightly ahead), one great option for me is to commit not to developing the technology and let the other team develop the technology at risk level ~1%. This gets me an expected utility of 0.99B + 0.01A, which is probably better than the 0.01C + 0.99A that I would otherwise have gotten (assuming I developed the technology first).
I am assuming common knowledge here, but I am not assuming coordination. See also OpenAI Charter.
Interesting. I had the Nash equilibrium in mind, but it’s true that unlike a dollar auction, you can de-escalate, and when you take into account how your opponent will react to you changing your strategy, doing so becomes viable. But then you end up with something like a game of chicken, where ideally, you want to force your opponent to de-escalate first, as this tilts the outcomes toward option C rather than B.