EDIT: All right then, if you downvoters are so smart, what would you bet if you were in sleeping beauty’s place?
This is a fair point. Your’s is an attempt at a real answer to the problem. Mine and most answers here seem to say something like that the problem is ill-defined, or that the physical situation described by the problem is impossible. But if you were actually Sleeping Beauty waking up with a high prior to trust the information you’ve been given, what else could you possibly answer?
If you had little reason to trust the information you’ve been given, the apparent impossibility of your situation would update that belief very strongly.
This is a fair point. Your’s is an attempt at a real answer to the problem. Mine and most answers here seem to say something like that the problem is ill-defined, or that the physical situation described by the problem is impossible. But if you were actually Sleeping Beauty waking up with a high prior to trust the information you’ve been given, what else could you possibly answer?
If you had little reason to trust the information you’ve been given, the apparent impossibility of your situation would update that belief very strongly.