On the contrary, the probability that Beauty has some particular set of Monday/Tuesday experiences is twice as great if she is woken on both days than if she is woken only on Monday
Ok, this sentence made everything snap into place for me. Thanks. The Sailor’s Child problem is also helpful. This has been an interesting journey. I was originally a one-thirder based on betting arguments, and then became convinced from the original post that that is indeed a red herring, and so momentarily became a halfer, and now that you’ve clarified this I’m back to being a thirder to within epsilon.
Ok, this sentence made everything snap into place for me. Thanks. The Sailor’s Child problem is also helpful. This has been an interesting journey. I was originally a one-thirder based on betting arguments, and then became convinced from the original post that that is indeed a red herring, and so momentarily became a halfer, and now that you’ve clarified this I’m back to being a thirder to within epsilon.