As you’re defined it, the thought experiment is simply impossible to run in principle, since if you apply standard principles of probability, Pr(Today=Monday|Xi+1) is NOT equal to Pr(Today=Monday|Xi). It’s like saying that as a condition of your thought experiment, arguments about the solution must assume that pi is exactly equal to three.
And the purpose of a thought experiment, is to define how ideal concepts work when you can’t run them in principle. And strawman arguments do not change that.
As you’re defined it, the thought experiment is simply impossible to run in principle, since if you apply standard principles of probability, Pr(Today=Monday|Xi+1) is NOT equal to Pr(Today=Monday|Xi). It’s like saying that as a condition of your thought experiment, arguments about the solution must assume that pi is exactly equal to three.
And the purpose of a thought experiment, is to define how ideal concepts work when you can’t run them in principle. And strawman arguments do not change that.