>If you weren’t trying to suggest that there’s debate about whether the people who stormed the Capitol should be executed without trial,
There isn’t debate: Ashli Babbitt was de facto executed without trial (unless there is an objective legal principle where a male police officer can shoot an unarmed woman for breaking into a government building) and the shooter is described as a hero by the main levers of power, with no debate. The mass execution of capitol rioters might occur within a few years, I give it perhaps a 5% chance.
Now this might seem like I’m trying to build sympathy for the Republican cause, but I am actually not. It is wiser to side with the winner than the loser, and I for one welcome America’s new fascist overlords.
I have not looked into the the details of Jan 6th deeply, but my understanding is that this was something like a riot, in which a large group of civilians were trying to enter the capital, without authorization, to disrupt part of the election process.
If the police officer who shot Babbitt was tasked with defending the Capital, then, even if there was poor judgement on his part, it seems really unreasonable to call his actions an execution. An execution is carried out, generally by a state, as part of a deliberative, measured process of deploying force. This is a distinction I think most people would appreciate.
The mass execution of capitol rioters might occur within a few years, I give it perhaps a 5% chance.
Define “mass” and “a few years” I’ll consider taking the other side of this bet.
>If the police officer who shot Babbitt was tasked with defending the Capital, then, even if there was poor judgement on his part, it seems really unreasonable to call his actions an execution. An execution is carried out, generally by a state, as part of a deliberative, measured process of deploying force. This is a distinction I think most people would appreciate.
You are correct, this is an important distinction. My impression is that there was no grounds for the officer to think that his life was in danger—since he is a man he could have physically restrained the woman without a risk of her wrestling the gun from his hands—therefore he doesn’t really have a justification of panicking, and he could deliberate and decide to kill her. Furthermore, the legal system had time to deliberate and decide not to charge him, which greenlights lethal force in any future similar situation.
Suppose in 2024, there is an argument at a polling station over accusations of misconduct. An officer might reason that he can start shooting republicans, by the precedent jan 6th set.
Its not an execution in the sense of a deliberate sentence, its the judicial system deliberately turning a blind eye.
>Define “mass” and “a few years” I’ll consider taking the other side of this bet.
10 years, and at least 10% dead (of those who actually stepped foot inside the capitol) with the majority of the rest in some kinda gulag, or having fled the country, or in non-democrat controlled territory in a civil war. The deaths could follow a trial, or could be execution by mob or whatever.
If 5% seems high, there seems to be civil wars on average once every 200 years or so, and tensions seem very high now.
My impression is that there was no grounds for the officer to think that his life was in danger—since he is a man he could have physically restrained the woman without a risk of her wrestling the gun from his hands—therefore he doesn’t really have a justification of panicking, and he could deliberate and decide to kill her.
Was she part of a crowd?
Furthermore, the legal system had time to deliberate and decide not to charge him, which greenlights lethal force in any future similar situation.
It seems like American cops are generally given a lot of leeway to make use-of-force decisions and that legal system has generally been reluctant to discipline cops for this. This seems bad, but importantly different from an ‘execution’.
10 years, and at least 10% dead (of those who actually stepped foot inside the capitol) with the majority of the rest in some kinda gulag, or having fled the country, or in non-democrat controlled territory in a civil war. The deaths could follow a trial, or could be execution by mob or whatever.
If 5% seems high, there seems to be civil wars on average once every 200 years or so, and tensions seem very high now.
I think if you’re going to redefine ‘execution’ to include some forms of police violence at protests or riots, the bet is going to become too vague to be likely decidable. I’d also decline that bet, as we’re already sampling from a population that’s shown itself to be willing to show up to potentially kinetic protests, and I can’t easily find out enough about the group I’d be betting on.
Yes, but they could only fit through the broken door slowly one at a time, so they couldn’t rush the officer.
Incidentally, I realise that my comment sounds pro-republican because I’m talking about what I see as a democrat executing a republican. But I’m sure many republicans would love to execute democrats too, its just that at the moment the democrats seem to have far more power, and so its far more likely that democrats start executing many republicans than vice versa. Either way, my point is that mass violence is an order of magnitude higher now than it was a few decades ago.
Yes, and the US government might have collapsed in the 70s. I remember that the national guard shot some anti-war protestors. Did any major politicians or journalists condone this? (I genuinely don’t know the answer) Anyway, grassroots violence won’t collapse a government without elite support, and what I’m saying is that the elites seem to be endorsing violence now. Additionally I don’t think an election has been contested like this ever?
>I think if you’re going to redefine ‘execution’ to include some forms of police violence at protests or riots, the bet is going to become too vague to be likely decidable.
I’m not thinking of one or two rouges killing people, I’m thinking of a significant escalation. The riots would eventually become paramilitary death squads, I suppose.
This could be made precise by, say, specifying that the death toll per capita has to equal the French revolution. Speaking of which, I don’t think I would have been able to predict what would happen in the French revolution. Standing in 1789, a prediction of mass murder followed by a giant war would sound paranoid.
(I know I said I would stop talking about politics, but I thought I might as well continue this thread)
The officer fired a single shot into a crowd of individuals who were breaking down a barricaded door. I think that even the strongest police officer would have a difficult time subduing 20 people peacefully.
US police officers shoot people while they are (or seem, to the police officers, to be) in the course of committing crimes all the time. Sometimes they kill them by other means besides shooting. Usually the crime they’re supposedly committing is less serious than storming a government building amid cries to murder the vice-president. Sometimes there’s not the least reason to think they’re committing any crime at all.
In some of the more obviously appalling cases there’s a public outcry about this. The great majority of the time, there isn’t. There are about 31,000 entries in the spreadsheet at Fatal Encounters, for instance; how many of those met with any more opposition or complaint than the killing of Ashli Babbitt?
If, as I contend, most of them weren’t, why should we take the shooting of Ashli Babbitt (in the course of committing a violent crime) as evidence that the US is headed into fascism and mass executions in the next few years, when we don’t draw any such conclusions from tens of thousands of other police killings?
(An aside: I was curious about where you were coming from, so to speak, so I had a quick look at your LW comment history. It seems that you post about pretty much nothing but politics (including under that heading highly-politicized topics such as race). I think we have different ideas about what LW is for.)
>If, as I contend, most of them weren’t, why should we take the shooting of Ashli Babbitt (in the course of committing a violent crime) as evidence that the US is headed into fascism and mass executions in the next few years, when we don’t draw any such conclusions from tens of thousands of other police killings?
Heading into mass executions with perhaps 5% probability is what I said.
The point is that the police make mistakes, but now it seems that whether an action is justified depends on political affiliation. If there were a similar event, of a republican killing a democrat and seeming to get away with it on pure political affiliation grounds, I would be similarly worried. BTW, events like the storming of the Bastille also involved very few deaths, but rapidly escalated in the next few years.
>(An aside: I was curious about where you were coming from, so to speak, so I had a quick look at your LW comment history. It seems that you post about pretty much nothing but politics (including under that heading highly-politicized topics such as race). I think we have different ideas about what LW is for.)
This comment depressed me. I’m not actually politically active, and I don’t think that I or others should be really. I have many points of disagreement with both parties. In many ways I’d rather no party had all that much power. I talk about politics because … its the impulse to tribal politics getting its hooks into my brain. If I think that there is a 5% chance of mass murder, I think for most of us the best thing to do is just… ignore it, unless it gets a lot worse, in which case the best thing to do is probably just leave, if you can.
Frankly you’re right, I have been using LW wrong (and so has everyone else that talks about politics).
Is there some way I can delete my account and all my posts?
Is there some way I can delete my account and all my posts?
You could contact the admin team and ask, but alternatively, consider instead create a new account and engaging with non-political stuff—this comment is pretty introspective and open to criticism, which I think is even more LW-y than being “smart”.
>this comment is pretty introspective and open to criticism, which I think is even more LW-y than being “smart”.
Thanks.
I’m not going to delete my posts on second thoughts, it would not be fair to those who have replied to me. I sort of feel that all political posts should just be moved to a walled off area for cognitive hazards. I am however, committing to staying away from politics.
>If you weren’t trying to suggest that there’s debate about whether the people who stormed the Capitol should be executed without trial,
There isn’t debate: Ashli Babbitt was de facto executed without trial (unless there is an objective legal principle where a male police officer can shoot an unarmed woman for breaking into a government building) and the shooter is described as a hero by the main levers of power, with no debate. The mass execution of capitol rioters might occur within a few years, I give it perhaps a 5% chance.
Now this might seem like I’m trying to build sympathy for the Republican cause, but I am actually not. It is wiser to side with the winner than the loser, and I for one welcome America’s new fascist overlords.
I have not looked into the the details of Jan 6th deeply, but my understanding is that this was something like a riot, in which a large group of civilians were trying to enter the capital, without authorization, to disrupt part of the election process.
If the police officer who shot Babbitt was tasked with defending the Capital, then, even if there was poor judgement on his part, it seems really unreasonable to call his actions an execution. An execution is carried out, generally by a state, as part of a deliberative, measured process of deploying force. This is a distinction I think most people would appreciate.
Define “mass” and “a few years” I’ll consider taking the other side of this bet.
>If the police officer who shot Babbitt was tasked with defending the Capital, then, even if there was poor judgement on his part, it seems really unreasonable to call his actions an execution. An execution is carried out, generally by a state, as part of a deliberative, measured process of deploying force. This is a distinction I think most people would appreciate.
You are correct, this is an important distinction. My impression is that there was no grounds for the officer to think that his life was in danger—since he is a man he could have physically restrained the woman without a risk of her wrestling the gun from his hands—therefore he doesn’t really have a justification of panicking, and he could deliberate and decide to kill her. Furthermore, the legal system had time to deliberate and decide not to charge him, which greenlights lethal force in any future similar situation.
Suppose in 2024, there is an argument at a polling station over accusations of misconduct. An officer might reason that he can start shooting republicans, by the precedent jan 6th set.
Its not an execution in the sense of a deliberate sentence, its the judicial system deliberately turning a blind eye.
>Define “mass” and “a few years” I’ll consider taking the other side of this bet.
10 years, and at least 10% dead (of those who actually stepped foot inside the capitol) with the majority of the rest in some kinda gulag, or having fled the country, or in non-democrat controlled territory in a civil war. The deaths could follow a trial, or could be execution by mob or whatever.
If 5% seems high, there seems to be civil wars on average once every 200 years or so, and tensions seem very high now.
Was she part of a crowd?
It seems like American cops are generally given a lot of leeway to make use-of-force decisions and that legal system has generally been reluctant to discipline cops for this. This seems bad, but importantly different from an ‘execution’.
Tensions do seem high right now, but I don’t know if they’re at an all time or high or otherwise unique. Dan Carlin has often mentioned the numerous domestic bombings in the 70s; this Rand article says there were 1,470 domestic attacks in the US in the 70s.
I think if you’re going to redefine ‘execution’ to include some forms of police violence at protests or riots, the bet is going to become too vague to be likely decidable. I’d also decline that bet, as we’re already sampling from a population that’s shown itself to be willing to show up to potentially kinetic protests, and I can’t easily find out enough about the group I’d be betting on.
>Was she part of a crowd?
Yes, but they could only fit through the broken door slowly one at a time, so they couldn’t rush the officer.
Incidentally, I realise that my comment sounds pro-republican because I’m talking about what I see as a democrat executing a republican. But I’m sure many republicans would love to execute democrats too, its just that at the moment the democrats seem to have far more power, and so its far more likely that democrats start executing many republicans than vice versa. Either way, my point is that mass violence is an order of magnitude higher now than it was a few decades ago.
>Dan Carlin has often mentioned the numerous domestic bombings in the 70s; this Rand article says there were 1,470 domestic attacks in the US in the 70s.
Yes, and the US government might have collapsed in the 70s. I remember that the national guard shot some anti-war protestors. Did any major politicians or journalists condone this? (I genuinely don’t know the answer) Anyway, grassroots violence won’t collapse a government without elite support, and what I’m saying is that the elites seem to be endorsing violence now. Additionally I don’t think an election has been contested like this ever?
>I think if you’re going to redefine ‘execution’ to include some forms of police violence at protests or riots, the bet is going to become too vague to be likely decidable.
I’m not thinking of one or two rouges killing people, I’m thinking of a significant escalation. The riots would eventually become paramilitary death squads, I suppose.
This could be made precise by, say, specifying that the death toll per capita has to equal the French revolution. Speaking of which, I don’t think I would have been able to predict what would happen in the French revolution. Standing in 1789, a prediction of mass murder followed by a giant war would sound paranoid.
(I know I said I would stop talking about politics, but I thought I might as well continue this thread)
The officer fired a single shot into a crowd of individuals who were breaking down a barricaded door. I think that even the strongest police officer would have a difficult time subduing 20 people peacefully.
US police officers shoot people while they are (or seem, to the police officers, to be) in the course of committing crimes all the time. Sometimes they kill them by other means besides shooting. Usually the crime they’re supposedly committing is less serious than storming a government building amid cries to murder the vice-president. Sometimes there’s not the least reason to think they’re committing any crime at all.
In some of the more obviously appalling cases there’s a public outcry about this. The great majority of the time, there isn’t. There are about 31,000 entries in the spreadsheet at Fatal Encounters, for instance; how many of those met with any more opposition or complaint than the killing of Ashli Babbitt?
If, as I contend, most of them weren’t, why should we take the shooting of Ashli Babbitt (in the course of committing a violent crime) as evidence that the US is headed into fascism and mass executions in the next few years, when we don’t draw any such conclusions from tens of thousands of other police killings?
(An aside: I was curious about where you were coming from, so to speak, so I had a quick look at your LW comment history. It seems that you post about pretty much nothing but politics (including under that heading highly-politicized topics such as race). I think we have different ideas about what LW is for.)
>If, as I contend, most of them weren’t, why should we take the shooting of Ashli Babbitt (in the course of committing a violent crime) as evidence that the US is headed into fascism and mass executions in the next few years, when we don’t draw any such conclusions from tens of thousands of other police killings?
Heading into mass executions with perhaps 5% probability is what I said.
The point is that the police make mistakes, but now it seems that whether an action is justified depends on political affiliation. If there were a similar event, of a republican killing a democrat and seeming to get away with it on pure political affiliation grounds, I would be similarly worried. BTW, events like the storming of the Bastille also involved very few deaths, but rapidly escalated in the next few years.
>(An aside: I was curious about where you were coming from, so to speak, so I had a quick look at your LW comment history. It seems that you post about pretty much nothing but politics (including under that heading highly-politicized topics such as race). I think we have different ideas about what LW is for.)
This comment depressed me. I’m not actually politically active, and I don’t think that I or others should be really. I have many points of disagreement with both parties. In many ways I’d rather no party had all that much power. I talk about politics because … its the impulse to tribal politics getting its hooks into my brain. If I think that there is a 5% chance of mass murder, I think for most of us the best thing to do is just… ignore it, unless it gets a lot worse, in which case the best thing to do is probably just leave, if you can.
Frankly you’re right, I have been using LW wrong (and so has everyone else that talks about politics).
Is there some way I can delete my account and all my posts?
You could contact the admin team and ask, but alternatively, consider instead create a new account and engaging with non-political stuff—this comment is pretty introspective and open to criticism, which I think is even more LW-y than being “smart”.
>this comment is pretty introspective and open to criticism, which I think is even more LW-y than being “smart”.
Thanks.
I’m not going to delete my posts on second thoughts, it would not be fair to those who have replied to me. I sort of feel that all political posts should just be moved to a walled off area for cognitive hazards. I am however, committing to staying away from politics.
Perhaps I will create a new account.