Some evidence in favor of your explanation (being at least a correct partial explanation):
von Neuman apparently envied Einstein’s physics intuitions, while Einstein lacked von Neuman’s math skills. This seems to suggest that they were “tuned” in slightly different directions.
Neither of the two seem superhumanly accomplished in other areas (that a smart person/agent might have goals for), such as making money, moral/philosophical progress, changing culture/politics in their preferred direction.
(An alternative explanation for 2 is that they could have been superhuman in other areas but their terminal goals did not chain through instrumental goals in those areas, which in turn raises the question of what those terminal goals must have been for this explanation to be true and what that says about human values.)
I note that under your explanation, someone could surprise the world by tuning a not-particularly-advanced AI for a task nobody previously thought to tune AI for, or by inventing a better tuning method (either general or specialized), thus achieving a large capability jump in one or more domains. Not sure how worrisome this is though.
Von Neumann himself was perpetually interested in many fields unrelated to science. Several years ago his wife gave him a 21-volume Cambridge History set, and she is sure he memorized every name and fact in the books. “He is a major expert on all the royal family trees in Europe,” a friend said once. “He can tell you who fell in love with whom, and why, what obscure cousin this or that czar married, how many illegitimate children he had and so on.” One night during the Princeton days a world-famous expert on Byzantine history came to the Von Neumann house for a party. “Johnny and the professor got into a corner and began discussing some obscure facet,” recalls a friend who was there. “Then an argument arose over a date. Johnny insisted it was this, the professor that. So Johnny said, ‘Let’s get the book.’ They looked it up and Johnny was right. A few weeks later the professor was invited to the Von Neumann house again. He called Mrs. von Neumann and said jokingly, ‘I’ll come if Johnny promises not to discuss Byzantine history. Everybody thinks I am the world’s greatest expert in it and I want them to keep on thinking that.’”
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According to the same article, he was not such a great driver.
Now, comparing him to another famous figure of his age, Menachem Mendel Schneerson. Schneerson was legendary for his ability to recall obscure sections of Torah verbatim, and his insightful reasoning (I am speaking lightly here, his impact was incredible). Using the hypothetical that von Neumann and Schneerson had a similar gift (their ability with the written word as a reflection of their general ability), depending on your worldview, Schneerson’s talents were not properly put to use in the service of science, or von Neumann’s talents were wasted in not becoming a gaon.
Perhaps, if von Neumann had engaged in Torah instead of science, we could have been spared nuclear weapons and maybe even AI for some time. Sure, maybe someone else would have done what he did...but who?
Some evidence in favor of your explanation (being at least a correct partial explanation):
von Neuman apparently envied Einstein’s physics intuitions, while Einstein lacked von Neuman’s math skills. This seems to suggest that they were “tuned” in slightly different directions.
Neither of the two seem superhumanly accomplished in other areas (that a smart person/agent might have goals for), such as making money, moral/philosophical progress, changing culture/politics in their preferred direction.
(An alternative explanation for 2 is that they could have been superhuman in other areas but their terminal goals did not chain through instrumental goals in those areas, which in turn raises the question of what those terminal goals must have been for this explanation to be true and what that says about human values.)
I note that under your explanation, someone could surprise the world by tuning a not-particularly-advanced AI for a task nobody previously thought to tune AI for, or by inventing a better tuning method (either general or specialized), thus achieving a large capability jump in one or more domains. Not sure how worrisome this is though.
As it turns out, von Neumann was good at lots of things.
https://qualiacomputing.com/2018/06/21/john-von-neumann/
Von Neumann himself was perpetually interested in many fields unrelated to science. Several years ago his wife gave him a 21-volume Cambridge History set, and she is sure he memorized every name and fact in the books. “He is a major expert on all the royal family trees in Europe,” a friend said once. “He can tell you who fell in love with whom, and why, what obscure cousin this or that czar married, how many illegitimate children he had and so on.” One night during the Princeton days a world-famous expert on Byzantine history came to the Von Neumann house for a party. “Johnny and the professor got into a corner and began discussing some obscure facet,” recalls a friend who was there. “Then an argument arose over a date. Johnny insisted it was this, the professor that. So Johnny said, ‘Let’s get the book.’ They looked it up and Johnny was right. A few weeks later the professor was invited to the Von Neumann house again. He called Mrs. von Neumann and said jokingly, ‘I’ll come if Johnny promises not to discuss Byzantine history. Everybody thinks I am the world’s greatest expert in it and I want them to keep on thinking that.’”
____
According to the same article, he was not such a great driver.
Now, comparing him to another famous figure of his age, Menachem Mendel Schneerson. Schneerson was legendary for his ability to recall obscure sections of Torah verbatim, and his insightful reasoning (I am speaking lightly here, his impact was incredible). Using the hypothetical that von Neumann and Schneerson had a similar gift (their ability with the written word as a reflection of their general ability), depending on your worldview, Schneerson’s talents were not properly put to use in the service of science, or von Neumann’s talents were wasted in not becoming a gaon.
Perhaps, if von Neumann had engaged in Torah instead of science, we could have been spared nuclear weapons and maybe even AI for some time. Sure, maybe someone else would have done what he did...but who?