People often talk about an accelerating everything happening fast world just before AGI is created. Moores law probably won’t speed up that much. And the rate of human thought will be the same. Training new experts takes time. In other words, coming up with insights takes time for humans. You can’t get massive breakthroughs every few hours with humans in the loop. You probably can’t get anything like that. And I don’t think that AI tools can speed up the process of humans having insights by orders of magnitude, unless the AI is so good it doesn’t need the humans.
In this model, we would go straight from research time on a scale of months, to computer time where no human is involved in the foom. This has a timescale of anywhere between months and microseconds.
People often talk about an accelerating everything happening fast world just before AGI is created. Moores law probably won’t speed up that much. And the rate of human thought will be the same. Training new experts takes time. In other words, coming up with insights takes time for humans. You can’t get massive breakthroughs every few hours with humans in the loop. You probably can’t get anything like that. And I don’t think that AI tools can speed up the process of humans having insights by orders of magnitude, unless the AI is so good it doesn’t need the humans.
In this model, we would go straight from research time on a scale of months, to computer time where no human is involved in the foom. This has a timescale of anywhere between months and microseconds.