I was relieved to hear that Bostrom also has doubts as to the validity of “if there are to be 10^12 humans before extinction, then it’s unlikely to merely be the 2 billionth one, so probably there won’t be that many” (“observation selection effect”).
As for the simulation argument, I think it’s good so long as you even feel comfortable having a prior for other base-level universes existing (I don’t). I do notice that in the argument, a simulation of our universe by a containing intelligence unlike us in origin has too small a measure to matter.
So long I only now read it. Good find. Thanks.
I was relieved to hear that Bostrom also has doubts as to the validity of “if there are to be 10^12 humans before extinction, then it’s unlikely to merely be the 2 billionth one, so probably there won’t be that many” (“observation selection effect”).
As for the simulation argument, I think it’s good so long as you even feel comfortable having a prior for other base-level universes existing (I don’t). I do notice that in the argument, a simulation of our universe by a containing intelligence unlike us in origin has too small a measure to matter.