My response will just lead to ‘reference class tennis’, which is why I think that for the purposes of having a conversation, we should take the inside view.
I think that people are getting too attached to my 80-90% success rate claim, and impulsively arguing that it’s wrong. My intentions in this article (that I thought were pretty clear) are just to get a conversation going about the components, work towards agreeing on those, and then maybe try to guess at what the resulting success rate will be.
My response will just lead to ‘reference class tennis’, which is why I think that for the purposes of having a conversation, we should take the inside view.
I think that people are getting too attached to my 80-90% success rate claim, and impulsively arguing that it’s wrong. My intentions in this article (that I thought were pretty clear) are just to get a conversation going about the components, work towards agreeing on those, and then maybe try to guess at what the resulting success rate will be.