One thing I should have mentioned earlier: it’s one thing to claim that humans implicitly gamble all the time, another to claiming that they implicitly assign probabilities when they do. It seems like when people make decisions whose outcomes they aren’t sure of, most of the time “they’re using heuristics that bypass probability” is a better model of their behavior than “they’re implicitly assigning such-and-such probabilities.”
Well, I think that depends on what you mean by “implicitly.” As I mentioned in another comment, I think there’s a difference between assigning probabilities in System 1 and assigning probabilities in System 2, and that probably many people are good at the former in their domains of expertise but bad at the latter. Which do you mean?
One thing I should have mentioned earlier: it’s one thing to claim that humans implicitly gamble all the time, another to claiming that they implicitly assign probabilities when they do. It seems like when people make decisions whose outcomes they aren’t sure of, most of the time “they’re using heuristics that bypass probability” is a better model of their behavior than “they’re implicitly assigning such-and-such probabilities.”
Well, I think that depends on what you mean by “implicitly.” As I mentioned in another comment, I think there’s a difference between assigning probabilities in System 1 and assigning probabilities in System 2, and that probably many people are good at the former in their domains of expertise but bad at the latter. Which do you mean?