This concept doesn’t explain why certain beliefs persist even when they don’t lead to accurate anticipations. Factors such as cultural tradition, emotional comfort, cognitive biases, and lack of exposure to alternative viewpoints can all contribute to the persistence of beliefs, even when they don’t “pay rent” in terms of generating accurate predictions
The post isn’t meant to be an explanation for why beliefs exist, it’s meant to highlight that by default, people have a bundle of things-that-feel-like beliefs that all seem to be a similar shape. But, if your goal is to figure out what’s true and make good plans, it’s very important to separate out which of your ‘beliefs’ are about predicting reality, and which are there for other reasons.
The post isn’t meant to be an explanation for why beliefs exist, it’s meant to highlight that by default, people have a bundle of things-that-feel-like beliefs that all seem to be a similar shape. But, if your goal is to figure out what’s true and make good plans, it’s very important to separate out which of your ‘beliefs’ are about predicting reality, and which are there for other reasons.