This seems to be partially based on (common?) misunderstanding of CAIS as making predictions about concentration of AI development/market power. As far as I can tell this wasn’t Eric’s intention: I specifically remember Eric mentioning he can easily imagine the whole “CAIS” ecosystem living in one floor of DeepMind building.
My understanding is that the CAIS model is consistent with highly concentrated development, but it’s not a necessary implication. The foundation models paradigm makes highly concentrated development nearly certain. Like I said in the post, I think we should see this as an update to the model, rather than a contradiction.
This seems to be partially based on (common?) misunderstanding of CAIS as making predictions about concentration of AI development/market power. As far as I can tell this wasn’t Eric’s intention: I specifically remember Eric mentioning he can easily imagine the whole “CAIS” ecosystem living in one floor of DeepMind building.
My understanding is that the CAIS model is consistent with highly concentrated development, but it’s not a necessary implication. The foundation models paradigm makes highly concentrated development nearly certain. Like I said in the post, I think we should see this as an update to the model, rather than a contradiction.