If it’s a million people possibly dying at a one-in-a-million chance, and I use the reasoning you used before, because the mugger can’t describe the people he’s threatening to kill, I shouldn’t treat that as any worse than a threat to kill one person at a one-in-a-million chance.
You misconstrue my position. I’m not saying, “Descriptions are magic!”. I’m saying: I prefer evidentialism to pure Bayesianism. Meaning: if the mugger can’t describe anything about the city under threat, that is evidence that he is lying.
Which misses the point of the scenario, since a real Pascal’s Mugging is not about a physical mugger who could ever be lying. It’s about having a flaw in your own reasoning system.
If it’s a million people possibly dying at a one-in-a-million chance, and I use the reasoning you used before, because the mugger can’t describe the people he’s threatening to kill, I shouldn’t treat that as any worse than a threat to kill one person at a one-in-a-million chance.
You misconstrue my position. I’m not saying, “Descriptions are magic!”. I’m saying: I prefer evidentialism to pure Bayesianism. Meaning: if the mugger can’t describe anything about the city under threat, that is evidence that he is lying.
Which misses the point of the scenario, since a real Pascal’s Mugging is not about a physical mugger who could ever be lying. It’s about having a flaw in your own reasoning system.