Well, if I have evidence that I’m a special kind of telekinetic who can only move stuff with his mind when not physically moving (i.e. not sending signals to my own muscles) instead of a boltzmann, then unless I’m missing something I really do prefer staying immobile and saving the child with my thoughts instead of jumping in and wasting a lot of energy (this is assuming there’s no long-term consequences like other people seeing me save a child with my mind), but I’d still jump in anyway because my mental machinery overrides the far knowledge that I can almost certainly do it without moving.
It would take a lot of actual training in order to overcome this and start actually using the telekinesis. I think in such a situation, an ideal rationalist would use telekinesis instead of jumping in the water—not to mention the practical advantages of saving the child faster and in a safer manner (also with no risk to yourself!), assuming you have that level of control over your telekinetic powers.
That’s a good one, I lean towards jumping in as well, but you are right that the ideal says “use the force”.
doesn’t fit the pascal’s wager pattern tho...
EDIT: it seems a reliable hypothesis that intuition will go with whatever is best in the near mode case, never mind this “probability” and “utility” stuff.
Well, to make it fit Pascal’s Wager pattern a bit more, assume that you’re aware that telekinetics like you sometimes have a finite, very small amount of physical energy you can spend during your entire life, and once you’re out of it you die. You have unlimited “telekinetic energy”. Saving the child is, if this is true, going to chop off a good 95% of your remaining lifespan and permanently sacrifice any possibility of becoming immortal.
Well, if I have evidence that I’m a special kind of telekinetic who can only move stuff with his mind when not physically moving (i.e. not sending signals to my own muscles) instead of a boltzmann, then unless I’m missing something I really do prefer staying immobile and saving the child with my thoughts instead of jumping in and wasting a lot of energy (this is assuming there’s no long-term consequences like other people seeing me save a child with my mind), but I’d still jump in anyway because my mental machinery overrides the far knowledge that I can almost certainly do it without moving.
It would take a lot of actual training in order to overcome this and start actually using the telekinesis. I think in such a situation, an ideal rationalist would use telekinesis instead of jumping in the water—not to mention the practical advantages of saving the child faster and in a safer manner (also with no risk to yourself!), assuming you have that level of control over your telekinetic powers.
That’s a good one, I lean towards jumping in as well, but you are right that the ideal says “use the force”.
doesn’t fit the pascal’s wager pattern tho...
EDIT: it seems a reliable hypothesis that intuition will go with whatever is best in the near mode case, never mind this “probability” and “utility” stuff.
Well, to make it fit Pascal’s Wager pattern a bit more, assume that you’re aware that telekinetics like you sometimes have a finite, very small amount of physical energy you can spend during your entire life, and once you’re out of it you die. You have unlimited “telekinetic energy”. Saving the child is, if this is true, going to chop off a good 95% of your remaining lifespan and permanently sacrifice any possibility of becoming immortal.
Or is that the wrong way around? Hmm.