Thank you for your reply. I think I failed to explain some of my thinking, which was to assume that high number of people being killed has a much lower chance to be true when that number is higher than the current human being alive on earth (or other currently inhabited planets in the future).
Like, it wouldn’t make sense for atmospheric ignition to be twice as more likely if it only killed half the people in the world, but it makes sense that, if the number of deaths is so high that the only possible way for it to happen would be to be in a simulation with lots and lots of computing power, then that set of hypothesis is substantially penalised and sunk. And given that there are no constraints (save the theoretical limits of near omnipotent simulators) of how many humans could be killed in such a scenario, I’d expect that any number so unrealistically high to overcome the unlikeliness of “bored simulation overlord with no moral code” would get hit by more unlikeliness caused by the theoretical limits mentioned above.
BUT that was just my uninformed anticipation, and I think also me trying to explain why, as a human, I would decide to not obey Pascal Mugging but would instead take the chance of igniting atmosphere seriously enough.
Thank you for your reply. I think I failed to explain some of my thinking, which was to assume that high number of people being killed has a much lower chance to be true when that number is higher than the current human being alive on earth (or other currently inhabited planets in the future).
Like, it wouldn’t make sense for atmospheric ignition to be twice as more likely if it only killed half the people in the world, but it makes sense that, if the number of deaths is so high that the only possible way for it to happen would be to be in a simulation with lots and lots of computing power, then that set of hypothesis is substantially penalised and sunk. And given that there are no constraints (save the theoretical limits of near omnipotent simulators) of how many humans could be killed in such a scenario, I’d expect that any number so unrealistically high to overcome the unlikeliness of “bored simulation overlord with no moral code” would get hit by more unlikeliness caused by the theoretical limits mentioned above.
BUT that was just my uninformed anticipation, and I think also me trying to explain why, as a human, I would decide to not obey Pascal Mugging but would instead take the chance of igniting atmosphere seriously enough.