OK, one more try. First, you’re picking 3^^^^3 out of the air, so I don’t see why you can’t pick 1/3^^^^3 out of the air also.
You’re not picking 3^^^^3 out of the air. The other guy told you that number.
You can’t pick probabilities out of the air. If you could, why not just set the probability that you’re God to one?
If I really wanted to consider this example realistically, I’d say that this guy has no magic powers, so I wouldn’t worry about him killing 3^^^^3 people or whatever.
With what probability? Would you give money to a mugger if their gun probably isn’t loaded? Is this example fundamentally different?
There I could see an (approximate) probability calculation being relevant, but, again, they key thing would be whether giving him $5 (or whatever) would make him more or less likely to set the fuse.
Even if it comes out as less, the paradox still exists. It’s just that then you can’t give him 5$. The only way to get out of it is for the probabilities to cancel out to within one part in 3^^^^3, which is absurd.
You’re not picking 3^^^^3 out of the air. The other guy told you that number.
You can’t pick probabilities out of the air. If you could, why not just set the probability that you’re God to one?
With what probability? Would you give money to a mugger if their gun probably isn’t loaded? Is this example fundamentally different?