The original estimate which gwern based his analysis on used a speed of about 60 mph, which is necessary to use when reversing the calculation back into miles. I would agree average speeds are probably lower.
Edit: I just noticed my calculation was wrong. I’m not sure where I got 32850 from. It’s more like 60 something thousand. Whoops.
He’s making a calculation using hours based on an analysis originally written in micromorts per mile. He has to convert from miles to hours to do that. He uses the estimate you gave him which assumed 57.5 mph to be exact to make that conversion. I used 60 as a rough approximation. To calculate the miles he’s using for his analysis, I have to use the same estimate. It’s an unstated assumption gwern makes to get to $50k in a lifetime. A lower average speed would make Nick’s argument stronger and gwern’s cost estimate lower.
The original estimate which gwern based his analysis on used a speed of about 60 mph, which is necessary to use when reversing the calculation back into miles. I would agree average speeds are probably lower.
Edit: I just noticed my calculation was wrong. I’m not sure where I got 32850 from. It’s more like 60 something thousand. Whoops.
Sorry, I’m not seeing where gwern uses 60mph?
He’s making a calculation using hours based on an analysis originally written in micromorts per mile. He has to convert from miles to hours to do that. He uses the estimate you gave him which assumed 57.5 mph to be exact to make that conversion. I used 60 as a rough approximation. To calculate the miles he’s using for his analysis, I have to use the same estimate. It’s an unstated assumption gwern makes to get to $50k in a lifetime. A lower average speed would make Nick’s argument stronger and gwern’s cost estimate lower.