5-20 years is to the date of the first general model that can be asked to do most robotics tasks and it has a decent chance to accomplish it zero shot in real world. And for the rest, the backend simulator learns from unexpected outcomes, the model trains on the updated simulator, and eventually succeeds in the real world as well.
It is also incremental, once the model can do a task at all in the real world, the simulator continues to update and in training the model continues to learn policies that perform well on the updated sim, thus increasing real world performance until it is close to the maximum possible performance given the goal heuristic and hardware limitations.
Once said model exists, exponential growth is inevitable but I am not claiming instant hydroponics or anything else.
Also note that the exponential growth may have a doubling time on the order of months to years, this is because of payback delays. (Every power generator has to pay for the energy used to build the generator first, with solar this is kinda slow, every factory has to first pay for the machine time used to build all the machines in the factory, etc)
So it only becomes crazy once the base value being doubled is large.
As for the rest: I agree, economic superiority is what you want in the immediate future. I am just saying “don’t build ASI or we nuke!” threats have to be dealt with and in the long term, “we refuse to build ASI and we feel safe with our nuclear arsenal” is a losing strategy.
5-20 years is to the date of the first general model that can be asked to do most robotics tasks and it has a decent chance to accomplish it zero shot in real world. And for the rest, the backend simulator learns from unexpected outcomes, the model trains on the updated simulator, and eventually succeeds in the real world as well.
It is also incremental, once the model can do a task at all in the real world, the simulator continues to update and in training the model continues to learn policies that perform well on the updated sim, thus increasing real world performance until it is close to the maximum possible performance given the goal heuristic and hardware limitations.
Once said model exists, exponential growth is inevitable but I am not claiming instant hydroponics or anything else.
Also note that the exponential growth may have a doubling time on the order of months to years, this is because of payback delays. (Every power generator has to pay for the energy used to build the generator first, with solar this is kinda slow, every factory has to first pay for the machine time used to build all the machines in the factory, etc)
So it only becomes crazy once the base value being doubled is large.
As for the rest: I agree, economic superiority is what you want in the immediate future. I am just saying “don’t build ASI or we nuke!” threats have to be dealt with and in the long term, “we refuse to build ASI and we feel safe with our nuclear arsenal” is a losing strategy.