No, I mean Beauty’s subjective credence that the coin came up heads. That should be 1⁄2 by the nature of a coin flip. Then, if the coin comes up tails, you need 1 bit to select between the subjectively identical states of waking up on Monday or Tuesdsay. So in total:
P(heads, Monday) = 1⁄2,
P(tails, Monday) = 1⁄4
P(tails, Tuesday) = 1⁄4
(EDIT: actually this depends on how difficult it is to locate memories on Monday vs. Tuesday, which might be harder given that your memory has been erased. I think that for ‘natural’ ways of locating your consciousness it should be close to 12/ 14 / 14 though)
(DOUBLE EDIT, MUCH LATER: actually it now seems to me like the thirder position might apply here, since the density of spacetime locations with the right memories is higher in the tails branch than the heads)
No, I mean Beauty’s subjective credence that the coin came up heads. That should be 1⁄2 by the nature of a coin flip. Then, if the coin comes up tails, you need 1 bit to select between the subjectively identical states of waking up on Monday or Tuesdsay. So in total:
P(heads, Monday) = 1⁄2,
P(tails, Monday) = 1⁄4
P(tails, Tuesday) = 1⁄4
(EDIT: actually this depends on how difficult it is to locate memories on Monday vs. Tuesday, which might be harder given that your memory has been erased. I think that for ‘natural’ ways of locating your consciousness it should be close to 12/ 14 / 14 though)
(DOUBLE EDIT, MUCH LATER: actually it now seems to me like the thirder position might apply here, since the density of spacetime locations with the right memories is higher in the tails branch than the heads)