Ok, I’ll bite: does that mean that you think China is less likely to invade China if recession? This would be happy news, but is not necessarily consensus view among DC defense wonks (i.e. the fear of someone saying, “We need a Short Victorious War”).
My current model is that China is a bit further away from invasion than people think. And a recession in the next few years could cripple that ability. People think that all you need for an invasion is ships, but you also need an army navy and air force capable of carrying it out.
Ok, I’ll bite: does that mean that you think China is less likely to invade China if recession? This would be happy news, but is not necessarily consensus view among DC defense wonks (i.e. the fear of someone saying, “We need a Short Victorious War”).
My current model is that China is a bit further away from invasion than people think. And a recession in the next few years could cripple that ability. People think that all you need for an invasion is ships, but you also need an army navy and air force capable of carrying it out.