Make sense; many of the forecasts in OP don’t have markets but maybe the comment at the top of this thread implies all the tag forecasts would have markets.
I don’t think it’s appropriate to put personal forecasts in Wiki pages. But yeah manifold metaculus polymarket. Or maybe just link them so they are more resilient.
Whose probabilities would would you put in the forecasts?
Presumably the probability of the linked market (which would presumably be Manifold).
Make sense; many of the forecasts in OP don’t have markets but maybe the comment at the top of this thread implies all the tag forecasts would have markets.
Yeah, that was my interpretation
I don’t think it’s appropriate to put personal forecasts in Wiki pages. But yeah manifold metaculus polymarket. Or maybe just link them so they are more resilient.