For “capable of doing tasks that took 1-10 hours in 2024”, I was imagining an AI that’s roughly as good as a software engineer that gets paid $100k-$200k a year.
For “hit the singularity”, this one is pretty hazy, I think I’m imagining that the metaculus AGI question has resolved YES, and that the superintelligence question is possibly also resolved YES. I think I’m imagining a point where AI is better than 99% of human experts at 99% of tasks. Although I think it’s pretty plausible that we could enter enormous economic growth with AI that’s roughly as good as humans at most things (I expect the main thing stopping this to be voluntary non-deployment and govt. intervention).
For “capable of doing tasks that took 1-10 hours in 2024”, I was imagining an AI that’s roughly as good as a software engineer that gets paid $100k-$200k a year.
For “hit the singularity”, this one is pretty hazy, I think I’m imagining that the metaculus AGI question has resolved YES, and that the superintelligence question is possibly also resolved YES. I think I’m imagining a point where AI is better than 99% of human experts at 99% of tasks. Although I think it’s pretty plausible that we could enter enormous economic growth with AI that’s roughly as good as humans at most things (I expect the main thing stopping this to be voluntary non-deployment and govt. intervention).
Yeah that sounds about right. A junior dev who needs to be told to do individual features.
You’re hit thi singularity doesn’t sound wrong but I’ll need to think