On point 2, interesting question about bias-variance. His model looks at beliefs moving in the range 0-1. The world is either 0 or 1. The question is what kind of flow of information will allow you to make the likely right decision in the minimal amount of time.
On point 1, I think Zhong’s framework is general enough to cover the examples you give. If you can choose the type of information to collect very flexibly, and if more informative signals are more costly, it makes more sense to look for confirmation because, given your beliefs, you are more likely to quickly be confident enough to act on your beliefs. Contrarian or neutral sources are useful, but in expectation, given your beliefs, they would require you to take more time before making a decision.
On point 2, interesting question about bias-variance. His model looks at beliefs moving in the range 0-1. The world is either 0 or 1. The question is what kind of flow of information will allow you to make the likely right decision in the minimal amount of time.
On point 1, I think Zhong’s framework is general enough to cover the examples you give. If you can choose the type of information to collect very flexibly, and if more informative signals are more costly, it makes more sense to look for confirmation because, given your beliefs, you are more likely to quickly be confident enough to act on your beliefs. Contrarian or neutral sources are useful, but in expectation, given your beliefs, they would require you to take more time before making a decision.