I think the unstated assumption (when timeline-predictors don’t otherwise specify) is “the time when there are no significant deniers”, or “the time when things are so clearly different that nobody (at least nobody the predictor respects) is using the past as any indication of the future on any relevant dimension.
Some people may CLAIM it’s about the point of no return, after which changes can’t be undone or slowed in order to maintain anything near status quo or historical expectations. This is pretty difficult to work with, since it could happen DECADES before it’s obvious to most people.
That said, I’m not sure talking about timelines was EVER all that useful or concrete. There are too many unknowns, and too many anti-inductive elements (where humans or other agents change their behavior based on others’ decisions and their predictions of decisions, in a chaotic recursion). “short”, “long”, or “never” are good at giving a sense of someone’s thinking, but anything more granular is delusional.
I think the unstated assumption (when timeline-predictors don’t otherwise specify) is “the time when there are no significant deniers”, or “the time when things are so clearly different that nobody (at least nobody the predictor respects) is using the past as any indication of the future on any relevant dimension.
Some people may CLAIM it’s about the point of no return, after which changes can’t be undone or slowed in order to maintain anything near status quo or historical expectations. This is pretty difficult to work with, since it could happen DECADES before it’s obvious to most people.
That said, I’m not sure talking about timelines was EVER all that useful or concrete. There are too many unknowns, and too many anti-inductive elements (where humans or other agents change their behavior based on others’ decisions and their predictions of decisions, in a chaotic recursion). “short”, “long”, or “never” are good at giving a sense of someone’s thinking, but anything more granular is delusional.