We live in special period of time when radical life extension is not far.
Not far indeed: global life expectancy at birth was 26 years in the Bronze Age, and in 2010 was 67.2. Five years ago our life expectancy at birth was more than double what it had been. wikipedia
The future cannot always be predicted from the past, but it can help us avoid repeating mistakes and it can help us avoid thinking something is new when it has happened before.
Not far indeed: global life expectancy at birth was 26 years in the Bronze Age, and in 2010 was 67.2. Five years ago our life expectancy at birth was more than double what it had been.
This is a little misleading because low life expectancy at birth was to a large extent a function of very high infant mortality. It is true that even if one takes into account infant mortality (for example by looking at life expectancy at three years of age) that life expectancy has gone up. However, this is primarily average life expectancy. Maximum life expectancy has barely budged. This is sometimes referred to as rectangularization of mortality curves.
I do think it is likely that we are going to see substantial improvements in maximum life expectancy in the next few years, but the change in life expectancy up to this time isn’t really indicative of it.
Longevity among Hunter-Gatherers: A Cross-Cultural Examination
Michael Gurven and Hillard Kaplan
Population and Development Review, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Jun., 2007), pp. 321-365
That data must be flawed. Only by 1980 did life expectancy pass 52 years at at the age of 20.
That paper suggests that hunter-gatherers were healthier than people in 1980′s which cannot be true. (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html)
They are not saying that hunter gatherers reached this age on average; they are saying that in a “state of nature”, as judged by looking at hunter gatherer societies, it is reasonable to assume, based on their evidence, that the human body and mind was adapted to work until 68-78 years of age. When they use the term ‘modal age’ (as they do in their conclusion, and their introduction), they mean ‘modal’ in the sense of modal possibility—‘could be’ or ‘would be’.
Edit: Sorry, that was unclear. To quote from the article, “the modal age at death may be the age at which most people experience sufficient physical decline such that if they do not die from one cause, they soon die from another.” That is, it is the age that the body starts to wear out, and one might be considered enfeebled.
I don’t think we have any good data on life expectancy among hunter-gatherers. Many people argue that life expectancy went down significantly with the transition from hunter-gatherer societies to agricultural societies. That may or may not be true but the statistics you link are not relevant to the claim. Just because life expectancy has been going up for the last few hundred years does not prove that it was even lower some thousands of years ago.
Not far indeed: global life expectancy at birth was 26 years in the Bronze Age, and in 2010 was 67.2. Five years ago our life expectancy at birth was more than double what it had been. wikipedia
The future cannot always be predicted from the past, but it can help us avoid repeating mistakes and it can help us avoid thinking something is new when it has happened before.
I like your maps!
This is a little misleading because low life expectancy at birth was to a large extent a function of very high infant mortality. It is true that even if one takes into account infant mortality (for example by looking at life expectancy at three years of age) that life expectancy has gone up. However, this is primarily average life expectancy. Maximum life expectancy has barely budged. This is sometimes referred to as rectangularization of mortality curves.
I do think it is likely that we are going to see substantial improvements in maximum life expectancy in the next few years, but the change in life expectancy up to this time isn’t really indicative of it.
Indeed, if you reached age 10 in the Roman empire you’d probably reach age 50 and if you reached age 20 your expectancy is near 60.
Infectious disease has always been awful.
And again, indeed the age of the OLDEST people has barely budged since ancient Greece.
Here’re some numbers! According to this paper](http://www.jstor.org/stable/25434609 (conclusions on page 349), once hunter-gatherers passed the age of 15, the average age age of death was 72 years. (!) Compare with the 2013 US average life expectancy of 78.8 years.
That data must be flawed. Only by 1980 did life expectancy pass 52 years at at the age of 20. That paper suggests that hunter-gatherers were healthier than people in 1980′s which cannot be true. (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html)
They are not saying that hunter gatherers reached this age on average; they are saying that in a “state of nature”, as judged by looking at hunter gatherer societies, it is reasonable to assume, based on their evidence, that the human body and mind was adapted to work until 68-78 years of age. When they use the term ‘modal age’ (as they do in their conclusion, and their introduction), they mean ‘modal’ in the sense of modal possibility—‘could be’ or ‘would be’.
Edit: Sorry, that was unclear. To quote from the article, “the modal age at death may be the age at which most people experience sufficient physical decline such that if they do not die from one cause, they soon die from another.” That is, it is the age that the body starts to wear out, and one might be considered enfeebled.
That seems to indicate that summarizing what they’ve said as the average age of death being 72 years is not accurate.
Yes. That summary is totally inaccurate.
I don’t think we have any good data on life expectancy among hunter-gatherers. Many people argue that life expectancy went down significantly with the transition from hunter-gatherer societies to agricultural societies. That may or may not be true but the statistics you link are not relevant to the claim. Just because life expectancy has been going up for the last few hundred years does not prove that it was even lower some thousands of years ago.