I think that if Lesswrong wants to be less wrong, then questions “why do you believe in that?” should not be downvoted.
As for the question itself, I know next to nothing about the situation on this NPP, but just from priors I’d give 70% that if someone shelled it, it was Russian army.
1) It is easier to shoot at NPP if you don’t know what you re shooting at. Russian army is much more likely to mistake this target for something else.
2) p(Russian government lies that it wasn’t them | it was them) > p(Ukrainian government lies it wasn’t them | it was them) (I believe in that since I believe that the left number is very very close to 1.)
3) I am under impression that Russian army uses a lot more artillery. It is somewhat less important for such important target (Ukrainian army is probably incentivized to concentrate their limited resources here), but probably still important.
I’d also like to hear an opinion of somebody who have more information about this.
Russian media confirms that there was fighting and a fire, though they blame the fire on Ukrainians.
I guess it could be Ukrainians shelling their own NPP, but it seems much more likely that Russian troops did it because they were the ones attacking, so they were more likely to have artillery in place and Ukrainians would have to fire at their own people to shell it.
This is the form I expect answers to “why do you believe x”-type questions to take. Thanks.
Note: That interfax.ru link doesn’t seem to work from North American or European IP addresses, but you can view a snapshot on the Way Back Machine here.
Why do you believe that?
I think that if Lesswrong wants to be less wrong, then questions “why do you believe in that?” should not be downvoted.
As for the question itself, I know next to nothing about the situation on this NPP, but just from priors I’d give 70% that if someone shelled it, it was Russian army.
1) It is easier to shoot at NPP if you don’t know what you re shooting at. Russian army is much more likely to mistake this target for something else.
2) p(Russian government lies that it wasn’t them | it was them) > p(Ukrainian government lies it wasn’t them | it was them) (I believe in that since I believe that the left number is very very close to 1.)
3) I am under impression that Russian army uses a lot more artillery. It is somewhat less important for such important target (Ukrainian army is probably incentivized to concentrate their limited resources here), but probably still important.
I’d also like to hear an opinion of somebody who have more information about this.
Because there is a video of the shelling.
Russian media confirms that there was fighting and a fire, though they blame the fire on Ukrainians.
I guess it could be Ukrainians shelling their own NPP, but it seems much more likely that Russian troops did it because they were the ones attacking, so they were more likely to have artillery in place and Ukrainians would have to fire at their own people to shell it.
This is the form I expect answers to “why do you believe x”-type questions to take. Thanks.
Note: That interfax.ru link doesn’t seem to work from North American or European IP addresses, but you can view a snapshot on the Way Back Machine here.