Which particular p(doom) are you talking about? I have a few that would be greater than 50%, depending upon exactly what you mean by “doom”, what constitutes “doom due to AI”, and over what time spans.
Most of my doom probability mass is in the transition to superintelligence, and I expect to see plenty of things that appear promising for near AGI, but won’t be successful for strong ASI.
About the only near-future significantly doom-reducing update that seems plausible would be if it turns out that a model FOOMs into strong superintelligence and turns out to be very anti-doomy and both willing and able to protect us from more doomy AI. Even then I’d wonder about the longer term, but it would at least be serious evidence against “ASI capability entails doom”.
Which particular p(doom) are you talking about? I have a few that would be greater than 50%, depending upon exactly what you mean by “doom”, what constitutes “doom due to AI”, and over what time spans.
Most of my doom probability mass is in the transition to superintelligence, and I expect to see plenty of things that appear promising for near AGI, but won’t be successful for strong ASI.
About the only near-future significantly doom-reducing update that seems plausible would be if it turns out that a model FOOMs into strong superintelligence and turns out to be very anti-doomy and both willing and able to protect us from more doomy AI. Even then I’d wonder about the longer term, but it would at least be serious evidence against “ASI capability entails doom”.