Yes, we definitely expect to see a lag between growth rates of cases and deaths, it is odd that even when this seems to be present it is only a couple of days to a week. I think this may be partly due to delays in diagnosis. 17.8 days is between onset of symptoms to death. However there is normally a lag between onset of symptoms and diagnosis (onset to hospitalisation I think is generally a bit less than a week) but even this still leaves a theoretical 10+ day lag.
That is all based on relative numbers within a country. Comparing CFR (case fatality rate) values between countries is notoriously unreliable due to testing capability. Looking at naive CFR I think the UK are about to overtake Italy as having the worst CFR in this set of 10 despite being earlier in their epidemic. This is either due to being worse at testing or better at diagnosing deaths as being COVID related (some countries aren’t counting deaths which don’t occur in hospital—source). CFR in the US is low compared to where other countries were at similar points in their epidemic so I guess it won’t reach 10% but it is likely to reach 5%.
Yes, we definitely expect to see a lag between growth rates of cases and deaths, it is odd that even when this seems to be present it is only a couple of days to a week. I think this may be partly due to delays in diagnosis. 17.8 days is between onset of symptoms to death. However there is normally a lag between onset of symptoms and diagnosis (onset to hospitalisation I think is generally a bit less than a week) but even this still leaves a theoretical 10+ day lag.
That is all based on relative numbers within a country. Comparing CFR (case fatality rate) values between countries is notoriously unreliable due to testing capability. Looking at naive CFR I think the UK are about to overtake Italy as having the worst CFR in this set of 10 despite being earlier in their epidemic. This is either due to being worse at testing or better at diagnosing deaths as being COVID related (some countries aren’t counting deaths which don’t occur in hospital—source). CFR in the US is low compared to where other countries were at similar points in their epidemic so I guess it won’t reach 10% but it is likely to reach 5%.