Kevin comments on The Craigslist Revolution: a real-world application of torture vs. dust specks OR How I learned to stop worrying and create one billion dollars out of nothing

[Kevin]

Correct. “Surely” is too strong, I’d put the probability at ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ of it actually happening. Maybe lower. The expected value is still worth the effort, even if you assign a 10% probability of the whole thing happening.