Agreed, but in many contexts, one should strive to be clear to what extent “it’s not obvious that X” implies “I don’t think X is true in the relevant context or margin”. Many arguments that involve this are about universality or distant extension of something that IS obvious in more normal circumstances.
Robin Hanson generally does specify that he’s saying X isn’t obvious (and is quite likely false) in some extreme circumstances, and his commenters are … not obviously understanding that.
Agreed, but in many contexts, one should strive to be clear to what extent “it’s not obvious that X” implies “I don’t think X is true in the relevant context or margin”. Many arguments that involve this are about universality or distant extension of something that IS obvious in more normal circumstances.
Robin Hanson generally does specify that he’s saying X isn’t obvious (and is quite likely false) in some extreme circumstances, and his commenters are … not obviously understanding that.
Hm, I’m having a little trouble thinking about the distinction between X in the current context vs X universally. Do you have any examples?
Glad to hear you’ve noticed this from Hanson too and it’s not just me.