To my mind, the interesting question is whether the Islamic State will be gone soonish. In the short run, it’s anti-fragile. It feeds on being attacked. On the other hand, it revolts every other institution which has a preference for normal human life.
Which institutions are those, though? The Western world in general of course, but parts of the Moslem world do not share those preferences, even leaving aside IS itself. This is a major part of what the struggle is about.
For example, I have read somewhere that Saudi Arabia is benignly disposed towards IS. The Saudis do not say this in public, of course, and being an absolute autocracy do not need to say anything to anyone. I have heard someone on the radio say that Boko Haram was encouraged and assisted by certain Nigerian politicians trying to build their own power base, which is one reason it can abduct children by the hundred and nothing effective is done about it.
Boko Haram was encouraged and assisted by certain Nigerian politicians
Nigeria is composed of three people/tribes: the Christian Yoruba in the south-west, the Christian Igbo in the south-east, and the Muslim Hausa in the north. They periodically fight—e.g. in the late 60s they had basically a civil war when Igbo tried for independence (see Biafra) and were suppressed.
Boko Haram is based in the Hausa north and Hausa don’t like the more powerful and richer southern Christians.
Which institutions are those, though? The Western world in general of course, but parts of the Moslem world do not share those preferences, even leaving aside IS itself. This is a major part of what the struggle is about.
For example, I have read somewhere that Saudi Arabia is benignly disposed towards IS. The Saudis do not say this in public, of course, and being an absolute autocracy do not need to say anything to anyone. I have heard someone on the radio say that Boko Haram was encouraged and assisted by certain Nigerian politicians trying to build their own power base, which is one reason it can abduct children by the hundred and nothing effective is done about it.
Nigeria is composed of three people/tribes: the Christian Yoruba in the south-west, the Christian Igbo in the south-east, and the Muslim Hausa in the north. They periodically fight—e.g. in the late 60s they had basically a civil war when Igbo tried for independence (see Biafra) and were suppressed.
Boko Haram is based in the Hausa north and Hausa don’t like the more powerful and richer southern Christians.