I expect Islamic State specifically to vanish within the next ten years, although fundamentalist Islamic terrorism will continue to be about as much of a threat as it was before, which isn’t actually very much.
Violent jihadism is only a threat to the sanity waterline in the Islamic nations where it finds fertile ground, and what we should be worried about elsewhere is the reaction to Islamic extremism, which mostly involves new security measures that use “terrorism” as an excuse to infringe on liberties.
Islamic extremist AIs are only likely to be a problem when it’s already been technologically possible to make an AI for several years, and the technological front-runners have been holding back due to safety concerns and not having solved FAI yet. This isn’t because fundamentalism completely obstructs technological advancement, but the most technologically advanced majority-muslim nation is miles behind the most technologically advanced nation, and there’s no reason to think they’ll advance much faster and catch up.
I expect Islamic State specifically to vanish within the next ten years, although fundamentalist Islamic terrorism will continue to be about as much of a threat as it was before, which isn’t actually very much.
Violent jihadism is only a threat to the sanity waterline in the Islamic nations where it finds fertile ground, and what we should be worried about elsewhere is the reaction to Islamic extremism, which mostly involves new security measures that use “terrorism” as an excuse to infringe on liberties.
Islamic extremist AIs are only likely to be a problem when it’s already been technologically possible to make an AI for several years, and the technological front-runners have been holding back due to safety concerns and not having solved FAI yet. This isn’t because fundamentalism completely obstructs technological advancement, but the most technologically advanced majority-muslim nation is miles behind the most technologically advanced nation, and there’s no reason to think they’ll advance much faster and catch up.