Now, the system might be unfair to those who couldn’t afford a lawyer and so can’t present as much data to further their cause.
If that’s so then there’s no point to arbitration. He with the best lawyer wins.
Put it this way: take, in the general (average) case, any decision made by an arbitrator. For simplicity, suppose it’s “A is right, B is wrong.” Now suppose party B had employed the services of the very best rationalist ever to live as a lawyer. What is the probability the arbitrator would have given the opposite judgment instead? How high a probability are you willing to accept before giving up on the system? And how high a probability do you estimate, in practice?
The purpose of arbitration isn’t to establish the truth of a question. If that were the case there would be no reason for the arbitrator to even listen to the disagreeing parties. She would be better off just going off and looking for the answer on her own. This would also take much, much longer since she wouldn’t want to leave any information out of the calculation.
Rather, the purpose of arbitration is to facilitate agreement. Not just any agreement but a kind of pseudo- Aumann style agreement between the two parties. The idea is that since people aren’t natural Bayesian calculators and have all kinds of biases and incentives that keep them from agreeing they’ll hire one to do the calculating for them. This means we want the result to be skewed toward the side with better arguments. If the side with weak arguments doesn’t end up closer to the side with strong arguments then we’re doing it wrong. This is true even if one side puts a lot more time or money into their arguments. Otherwise you’d have to conclude that arguing never has a point because the outcomes of arguments are skewed toward those who are the smartest, have done the most research and thought up the best arguments.
If agreement is more important to you than objective truth, than sure, that method will work. I just happen to think a system that optimizes for agreement at the expense of truth and facts tends to lead to a lot of pain in the end. You end up with Jesuits masterfully arguing the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.
Not just any agreement but a kind of pseudo- Aumann style agreement between the two parties.
Edit: If a rationalist is hired to arbitrate a dispute between two Jesuits regarding the number of angels she isn’t going to start complaining that there are no angels. That isn’t what she was hired to do. If the Jesuits want to read some atheistic arguments they can find those on their own. The task of the arbitrator is applying rationalist method to whatever shared premises the disputing parties have. But the system as a whole still tends toward truth because an arbitration between a Jesuit and an atheist will generate a ruling in favor of atheism (assuming the Jesuit believes in God because of evidence and not Kierkegaardian faith or “grace”).
Think we’ve got some fundamental disagreements here about just what it is that rationalists do. You cannot just hire them to argue anything. The ideal rationalist is the one who only ends up arguing true beliefs, and who, when presented with anything else, throws up their hands and says “How am I supposed to make that sound plausible?”
The ideal rationalist is the one who only ends up arguing true beliefs, and who, when presented with anything else, throws up their hands and says “How am I supposed to make that sound plausible?”
I reply: I’m paying you a lot of money. You’ll find a way.
When I say or hear “rationality”, I think of the tool, not of the noble “ideal rationalist” whose only pursuit is truth, not money or other personal interest.
That which can be used to argue for any side is not distinguishing evidence, whether “that” is a strategy, a person, an outlook on life, whatever.
Rationality is winning. I’m hiring a master rationalist to make me win my court case. What’s not to like?
A rational debate and agreeing on objective truth may be what the arbitrage system wants. But what the individual disputant wants, in the end, in an important enough court case, is to win. If I have to game the system to win, I will. (It doesn’t help when we create legal entities like corporations, which are liable to get into many more trials and also to treat many more trials as all-out war where winning is paramount.)
If that’s so then there’s no point to arbitration. He with the best lawyer wins.
Put it this way: take, in the general (average) case, any decision made by an arbitrator. For simplicity, suppose it’s “A is right, B is wrong.” Now suppose party B had employed the services of the very best rationalist ever to live as a lawyer. What is the probability the arbitrator would have given the opposite judgment instead? How high a probability are you willing to accept before giving up on the system? And how high a probability do you estimate, in practice?
The purpose of arbitration isn’t to establish the truth of a question. If that were the case there would be no reason for the arbitrator to even listen to the disagreeing parties. She would be better off just going off and looking for the answer on her own. This would also take much, much longer since she wouldn’t want to leave any information out of the calculation.
Rather, the purpose of arbitration is to facilitate agreement. Not just any agreement but a kind of pseudo- Aumann style agreement between the two parties. The idea is that since people aren’t natural Bayesian calculators and have all kinds of biases and incentives that keep them from agreeing they’ll hire one to do the calculating for them. This means we want the result to be skewed toward the side with better arguments. If the side with weak arguments doesn’t end up closer to the side with strong arguments then we’re doing it wrong. This is true even if one side puts a lot more time or money into their arguments. Otherwise you’d have to conclude that arguing never has a point because the outcomes of arguments are skewed toward those who are the smartest, have done the most research and thought up the best arguments.
If agreement is more important to you than objective truth, than sure, that method will work. I just happen to think a system that optimizes for agreement at the expense of truth and facts tends to lead to a lot of pain in the end. You end up with Jesuits masterfully arguing the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.
Uh… like I said:
Edit: If a rationalist is hired to arbitrate a dispute between two Jesuits regarding the number of angels she isn’t going to start complaining that there are no angels. That isn’t what she was hired to do. If the Jesuits want to read some atheistic arguments they can find those on their own. The task of the arbitrator is applying rationalist method to whatever shared premises the disputing parties have. But the system as a whole still tends toward truth because an arbitration between a Jesuit and an atheist will generate a ruling in favor of atheism (assuming the Jesuit believes in God because of evidence and not Kierkegaardian faith or “grace”).
Think we’ve got some fundamental disagreements here about just what it is that rationalists do. You cannot just hire them to argue anything. The ideal rationalist is the one who only ends up arguing true beliefs, and who, when presented with anything else, throws up their hands and says “How am I supposed to make that sound plausible?”
That which can be used to argue for any side is not distinguishing evidence, whether “that” is a strategy, a person, an outlook on life, whatever.
I reply: I’m paying you a lot of money. You’ll find a way.
When I say or hear “rationality”, I think of the tool, not of the noble “ideal rationalist” whose only pursuit is truth, not money or other personal interest.
Rationality is winning. I’m hiring a master rationalist to make me win my court case. What’s not to like?
A rational debate and agreeing on objective truth may be what the arbitrage system wants. But what the individual disputant wants, in the end, in an important enough court case, is to win. If I have to game the system to win, I will. (It doesn’t help when we create legal entities like corporations, which are liable to get into many more trials and also to treat many more trials as all-out war where winning is paramount.)