I will take up the bet on the Higgs field, with a couple of caveats:
You use the phrase “the Higgs boson”, when several theories predict more than one. If more than one are found, I want that to count as a win for me.
If the LHC doesn’t run, the bet is off.
Time limit: I suggest that if observation of the Higgs does not appear in the 2014 edition of “Review of Particle Physics”, I’ve lost. “Observation” should be a five-sigma signal, as is standard, either in one channel or smaller observations in several channels.
25 dollars, even odds.
As a side note, this is more of a hedge position than a belief in the Higgs: I’m a particle physicist, and if we don’t find the Higgs that will be very interesting and well worth the trivial pain of 25 dollars and even the not-so-trivial pain of losing a public bet. (I’m not a theorist, so strictly speaking it’s not my theory on the chopping block.) While if we do find it, I will (assuming Eliezer takes up this offer) have the consolation of having demonstrated the superior understanding and status of my field against outsiders. (It’s one thing for me to say “Death to theorists” and laugh at their heads-in-the-clouds attitude and incomprehensible math. It’s quite another for one who has not done the apprenticeship to do so.) And 25 dollars, of course.
Here’s my argument against Higgs boson(s) showing up:
The Higgs boson was just the first good idea we had about how to generate mass. Theory does not say anything about how massive the Higgs itself it is, just that there is an upper bound. The years have passed, it hasn’t shown up, and the LHC will finally take us into the last remaining region of parameter space. So Higgs believers say “hallelujah, the Higgs will finally show up”. But a Higgs skeptic just says this is the end of the line. It’s just one idea, it hasn’t been confirmed so far, why would we expect it to be confirmed at the last possible chance?
Nima Arkani-Hamed of Harvard said he would bet a year’s salary on the Higgs. “If the Higgs or something like it doesn’t exist,” he said, “then some very basic things like quantum mechanics are wrong.”
I wrote to him at the time expressing interest in the bet, but asking for more details. (No reply.) The rather bold statement that QM itself implies a Higgs “or something like it” I think must be a reference to the breakdown in unitarity of the Standard Model that should occur at 1 TeV—which implies that the Standard Model is incomplete, so something will show up. But does it have to be a new scalar boson? There are Higgsless models of mass generation in string theory.
This all leads me to think anew about what’s going to happen. The LHC will collide protons and detectors will pick up some of the shrapnel. I think no-one expects new types of particle to be detected directly. They are expected to be heavy and to decay quickly into known particles; the evidence of their existence will be in the shrapnel.
The Standard Model makes predictions about the distribution of shrapnel, but breaks down at 1 TeV. So one may predict that what will be observed is a deviation in shrapnel distributions from SM predictions and that is all. Can we infer from this, and from the existing range of physics models, what the likely developments in theory are going to be, even before the experiment is performed?
Although I said that totally new particles will not be observed directly, my understanding is that the next best thing is certainly possible, namely a very sharp and unanticipated change in the distribution of decay products at a specific energy. That would mean that you had a new particle at that energy.
The alternative would seem to be a sort of gentle deviation of decay statistics away from SM predictions. Unfortunately I don’t know enough about the theoretical options to really predict how this might be interpreted. However, the Higgsless models involve extra dimensions. So if we have the dull outcome, it will probably be interpreted by some as our first evidence of extra dimensions.
Also, particle physics is very complex and there are many possible mechanisms of interaction. I think that, if no Higgs shows up, many theorists will go back to their theorems and question the assumptions which tell us that this is the last chance for a Higgs to show up.
My prediction, then, is that if we get the dull outcome—no unambiguous signal of a new particle—we will see both even more interest in extra dimensions, and a new generation of “heavy Higgs” models which explain why we can, after all, have a heavier-than-1-TeV Higgs without screwing up observed low-energy physics.
This is a side issue but I’m curious as to what people’s reactions are:
I’m kind-of hoping that dark matter turns out to be massive neutrinos.
Of the various candidates, it seems like the most familiar and comforting.
We’ve even seen neutrinos interact in particle detectors, which is way
more than you can say for most of the other alternatives…
Compared to axions or supersymmetric particles, or WIMPs,
massive neutrinos have have more of the comfort of home. Anyone feel similarly?
As I understand it, there is a known upper bound on neutrino mass that is large enough to allow them to account for some of the dark matter, but too small to allow them to account for all or most of it.
That is correct as far as the known neutrinos go. If there is a fourth generation of matter, however, all bets are off. (I’m too lazy to look up the limits on that search at the moment.) On the other hand, since neutrinos oscillate and the sun flux is one-third what we expect rather than one-fourth, you need some mechanism to explain why this fourth generation doesn’t show up in the oscillations. A large mass is probably helpful for that, though, if I remember correctly.
Compared to axions or supersymmetric particles, or WIMPs, massive neutrinos have have more of the comfort of home.
Point of order! A massive neutrino is a WIMP. “Weakly Interacting”—that’s neutrino to you—“Massive Particle”.
Point of order! A massive neutrino is a WIMP. “Weakly Interacting”—that’s neutrino to you—“Massive Particle”.
Well, but “massive” in WIMP usually means very massive (i.e. non-relativistic at T = 2.7 K). As far as gravitational effects, particles with non-zero mass but ultrarelativistic speeds behave very much like photons AFAIK.
I will take up the bet on the Higgs field, with a couple of caveats:
You use the phrase “the Higgs boson”, when several theories predict more than one. If more than one are found, I want that to count as a win for me.
If the LHC doesn’t run, the bet is off.
Time limit: I suggest that if observation of the Higgs does not appear in the 2014 edition of “Review of Particle Physics”, I’ve lost. “Observation” should be a five-sigma signal, as is standard, either in one channel or smaller observations in several channels.
25 dollars, even odds.
As a side note, this is more of a hedge position than a belief in the Higgs: I’m a particle physicist, and if we don’t find the Higgs that will be very interesting and well worth the trivial pain of 25 dollars and even the not-so-trivial pain of losing a public bet. (I’m not a theorist, so strictly speaking it’s not my theory on the chopping block.) While if we do find it, I will (assuming Eliezer takes up this offer) have the consolation of having demonstrated the superior understanding and status of my field against outsiders. (It’s one thing for me to say “Death to theorists” and laugh at their heads-in-the-clouds attitude and incomprehensible math. It’s quite another for one who has not done the apprenticeship to do so.) And 25 dollars, of course.
Update: a 5-sigma signal for a new boson has showed up.
I’ve just learned that Stephen Hawking has bet against the Higgs showing up.
Here’s my argument against Higgs boson(s) showing up:
The Higgs boson was just the first good idea we had about how to generate mass. Theory does not say anything about how massive the Higgs itself it is, just that there is an upper bound. The years have passed, it hasn’t shown up, and the LHC will finally take us into the last remaining region of parameter space. So Higgs believers say “hallelujah, the Higgs will finally show up”. But a Higgs skeptic just says this is the end of the line. It’s just one idea, it hasn’t been confirmed so far, why would we expect it to be confirmed at the last possible chance?
Two years ago:
I wrote to him at the time expressing interest in the bet, but asking for more details. (No reply.) The rather bold statement that QM itself implies a Higgs “or something like it” I think must be a reference to the breakdown in unitarity of the Standard Model that should occur at 1 TeV—which implies that the Standard Model is incomplete, so something will show up. But does it have to be a new scalar boson? There are Higgsless models of mass generation in string theory.
This all leads me to think anew about what’s going to happen. The LHC will collide protons and detectors will pick up some of the shrapnel. I think no-one expects new types of particle to be detected directly. They are expected to be heavy and to decay quickly into known particles; the evidence of their existence will be in the shrapnel.
The Standard Model makes predictions about the distribution of shrapnel, but breaks down at 1 TeV. So one may predict that what will be observed is a deviation in shrapnel distributions from SM predictions and that is all. Can we infer from this, and from the existing range of physics models, what the likely developments in theory are going to be, even before the experiment is performed?
Although I said that totally new particles will not be observed directly, my understanding is that the next best thing is certainly possible, namely a very sharp and unanticipated change in the distribution of decay products at a specific energy. That would mean that you had a new particle at that energy.
The alternative would seem to be a sort of gentle deviation of decay statistics away from SM predictions. Unfortunately I don’t know enough about the theoretical options to really predict how this might be interpreted. However, the Higgsless models involve extra dimensions. So if we have the dull outcome, it will probably be interpreted by some as our first evidence of extra dimensions.
Also, particle physics is very complex and there are many possible mechanisms of interaction. I think that, if no Higgs shows up, many theorists will go back to their theorems and question the assumptions which tell us that this is the last chance for a Higgs to show up.
My prediction, then, is that if we get the dull outcome—no unambiguous signal of a new particle—we will see both even more interest in extra dimensions, and a new generation of “heavy Higgs” models which explain why we can, after all, have a heavier-than-1-TeV Higgs without screwing up observed low-energy physics.
I was hoping to make some more money on this :) in a shorter time and hence greater implied interest rate :) but sure, it’s a bet.
Sorry, graduate students can’t afford to be flinging around the big bucks. :) If I get the postdoc I’m hoping for, we can up the stakes, if you like.
This is a side issue but I’m curious as to what people’s reactions are: I’m kind-of hoping that dark matter turns out to be massive neutrinos. Of the various candidates, it seems like the most familiar and comforting. We’ve even seen neutrinos interact in particle detectors, which is way more than you can say for most of the other alternatives… Compared to axions or supersymmetric particles, or WIMPs, massive neutrinos have have more of the comfort of home. Anyone feel similarly?
As I understand it, there is a known upper bound on neutrino mass that is large enough to allow them to account for some of the dark matter, but too small to allow them to account for all or most of it.
That is correct as far as the known neutrinos go. If there is a fourth generation of matter, however, all bets are off. (I’m too lazy to look up the limits on that search at the moment.) On the other hand, since neutrinos oscillate and the sun flux is one-third what we expect rather than one-fourth, you need some mechanism to explain why this fourth generation doesn’t show up in the oscillations. A large mass is probably helpful for that, though, if I remember correctly.
Point of order! A massive neutrino is a WIMP. “Weakly Interacting”—that’s neutrino to you—“Massive Particle”.
Well, but “massive” in WIMP usually means very massive (i.e. non-relativistic at T = 2.7 K). As far as gravitational effects, particles with non-zero mass but ultrarelativistic speeds behave very much like photons AFAIK.
Thanks, point taken—I’d been thinking of more exotic WIMPs
I’ve added this bet to PredictionBook at http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1566 based on http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry