What is the probability of tails given it’s Monday for your observer instances?
Good formulation. “Given it’s Monday” can have two different meanings:
you learn that you will only be awoken on Monday, then it’s 50%
you awake assign 1⁄3 probability to each instance and then make the update P(T|M)=P(M|T)P(T)/P(M)=(1/2)(2/3)/(2/3)=50%
So it turns out to 50 % for both but it wasn’t initially obvious to me that these two ways would have the same result.
What is the probability of tails given it’s Monday for your observer instances?
Good formulation. “Given it’s Monday” can have two different meanings:
you learn that you will only be awoken on Monday, then it’s 50%
you awake assign 1⁄3 probability to each instance and then make the update P(T|M)=P(M|T)P(T)/P(M)=(1/2)(2/3)/(2/3)=50%
So it turns out to 50 % for both but it wasn’t initially obvious to me that these two ways would have the same result.