Well, if it has the ability to clean a bathroom, similar systems could cook, clean, drive, construct, do pretty much any routine task—that sounds like a lot of jobs to me.
This really depends on how you interpret “a robot can autonomously clean a bachelor’s bathroom”. If you interpret it the same way that “Roomba can autonomously sweep a floor”, then lizard-level intelligence seems enough (Roomba is barely insect-level). Roomba can sweep a floor, provided you moved all the toys and cables and papers out of his way first, and put the chairs on the table, and closed the doors of the rooms you don’t want him to visit, and are okay with it taking ten times the time a human would take, missed corners, and occasionally: unswept spots, Roomba locking himself in a room, Roomba finding a roll of toilet paper on the floor and scattering the shreds all over your home.
So if the future Bathroomba can clean your bathroom (wipe the sinks and mirrors, clean the floor with water, pick up stray stuff, etc.) but with a similar list of caveats (it will take him half a day, you need to prepare the bathroom a bit, there are some situations he just can’t handle), then lizard-level intelligence (meaning roughly better than today’s robots, but still far from Foom) seems enough.
… and not necessarily an unemployment crisis, because most of your examples—driving, cooking, building—are in domains where mistakes can be very costly, much worse than “insufficiently sweeping the floor” or “knocking an open bottle of shampoo over”. You may be able to hack together a commercially successful robot in areas where mistakes are of little consequence by just finding shortcuts that avoid the really difficult problems (Roomba is really good at that—people had been working on Simultaneous Location And Mapping algorithms for at least 15 years before Roomba was released with a really straightforward algorithm that was basically “screw this, just bump around randomly” with a bit of fine tuning (and a clever trick of estimating the size of the place you’re in by tracking how long it takes you to bump into something)).
But even then, if we get to Bathroomba-level there may be enough other domains where clever hacks might displace jobs.
This really depends on how you interpret “a robot can autonomously clean a bachelor’s bathroom”. If you interpret it the same way that “Roomba can autonomously sweep a floor”, then lizard-level intelligence seems enough (Roomba is barely insect-level). Roomba can sweep a floor, provided you moved all the toys and cables and papers out of his way first, and put the chairs on the table, and closed the doors of the rooms you don’t want him to visit, and are okay with it taking ten times the time a human would take, missed corners, and occasionally: unswept spots, Roomba locking himself in a room, Roomba finding a roll of toilet paper on the floor and scattering the shreds all over your home.
So if the future Bathroomba can clean your bathroom (wipe the sinks and mirrors, clean the floor with water, pick up stray stuff, etc.) but with a similar list of caveats (it will take him half a day, you need to prepare the bathroom a bit, there are some situations he just can’t handle), then lizard-level intelligence (meaning roughly better than today’s robots, but still far from Foom) seems enough.
… and not necessarily an unemployment crisis, because most of your examples—driving, cooking, building—are in domains where mistakes can be very costly, much worse than “insufficiently sweeping the floor” or “knocking an open bottle of shampoo over”. You may be able to hack together a commercially successful robot in areas where mistakes are of little consequence by just finding shortcuts that avoid the really difficult problems (Roomba is really good at that—people had been working on Simultaneous Location And Mapping algorithms for at least 15 years before Roomba was released with a really straightforward algorithm that was basically “screw this, just bump around randomly” with a bit of fine tuning (and a clever trick of estimating the size of the place you’re in by tracking how long it takes you to bump into something)).
But even then, if we get to Bathroomba-level there may be enough other domains where clever hacks might displace jobs.