The notion would be that the aggregate demand shock / overly tight money allowing NGDP collapse due to the shadow banking collapse produced the Great Recession and the sharp employment drop. And then these other long-term trends meant that re-employment was broken afterward as NGDP rose again, a tendency already noted in the ‘jobless recovery’ after the 2001 recession.
I think its worth noting here that NGDP never had “catch-up” growth, its still far below the previous trend, and the output gap is closing very slowly. So the simple explanations that tie NGDP growth to job growth don’t have to break to establish the type of “jobless” recovery we are still seeing. Okun’s law has been holding pretty well throughout the great recession.
And the reason that you don’t include increasing automation in with these other trends is that you don’t see the automation situation as materially different from a few decades ago, unlike the other factors. Yes?
The notion would be that the aggregate demand shock / overly tight money allowing NGDP collapse due to the shadow banking collapse produced the Great Recession and the sharp employment drop. And then these other long-term trends meant that re-employment was broken afterward as NGDP rose again, a tendency already noted in the ‘jobless recovery’ after the 2001 recession.
I think its worth noting here that NGDP never had “catch-up” growth, its still far below the previous trend, and the output gap is closing very slowly. So the simple explanations that tie NGDP growth to job growth don’t have to break to establish the type of “jobless” recovery we are still seeing. Okun’s law has been holding pretty well throughout the great recession.
And the reason that you don’t include increasing automation in with these other trends is that you don’t see the automation situation as materially different from a few decades ago, unlike the other factors. Yes?