Thank you for the examples, I see your point. I can imagine ways 300-IQ AIs would accelerate some of these that sound plausible to me, but since I don’t really have direct experience that might not mean much.
That said, I notice that the bluej’s post mentioned the AI dominating scientific output, not necessarily increasing its rate by much. Of course, a single AI instance would not dominate science—as evidenced by the fact that the few ~200 IQ humans that existed didn’t claim a big part—but an AI architecture that can be easily replicated might. After all, at least as far as IQ is concerned, anyone who hires an IQ 140–160 scientist now would just use an IQ 300 AI instead.
Of course, science is not just IQ, and even if IBM’s Watson had IQ 300 right now and I doubt enough instances of it would be built in five years to replace all scientists simply due to hardware costs (not to mention licensing and patent wars). But then again I don’t have a very good feel for the relative cost of humans and hardware for things the size of Google, so I don’t have very high confidence either way. But certainly 20 to 30 years would change the landscape hugely.
No, I did not, and it shows :-)
Thank you for the examples, I see your point. I can imagine ways 300-IQ AIs would accelerate some of these that sound plausible to me, but since I don’t really have direct experience that might not mean much.
That said, I notice that the bluej’s post mentioned the AI dominating scientific output, not necessarily increasing its rate by much. Of course, a single AI instance would not dominate science—as evidenced by the fact that the few ~200 IQ humans that existed didn’t claim a big part—but an AI architecture that can be easily replicated might. After all, at least as far as IQ is concerned, anyone who hires an IQ 140–160 scientist now would just use an IQ 300 AI instead.
Of course, science is not just IQ, and even if IBM’s Watson had IQ 300 right now and I doubt enough instances of it would be built in five years to replace all scientists simply due to hardware costs (not to mention licensing and patent wars). But then again I don’t have a very good feel for the relative cost of humans and hardware for things the size of Google, so I don’t have very high confidence either way. But certainly 20 to 30 years would change the landscape hugely.