Unfortunately, the wiki entry on the rule of succession is poorly written.
Simplifying and working backwards are the two standard approaches that can help here.
Simplest possible case: 1 paper, chances of yes are 50% before you start.
Next simplest case: 2 papers. 50% for the first one, what are the odds for the second one, given that the first one is yes? Use Bayesian inference to calculate it. Increase the number of papers, repeat a few more times, notice a pattern. Prove the pattern in general or by induction.
Unfortunately, the wiki entry on the rule of succession is poorly written.
Simplifying and working backwards are the two standard approaches that can help here.
Simplest possible case: 1 paper, chances of yes are 50% before you start. Next simplest case: 2 papers. 50% for the first one, what are the odds for the second one, given that the first one is yes? Use Bayesian inference to calculate it. Increase the number of papers, repeat a few more times, notice a pattern. Prove the pattern in general or by induction.