I think there were some not insignificant updates to Metaculus aggregate predictions for AGI timelines in the past of few months: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CiYSFaQvtwj98csqG/metaculus-predicts-weak-agi-in-2-years-and-agi-in-10#comments
I think there were some not insignificant updates to Metaculus aggregate predictions for AGI timelines in the past of few months: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CiYSFaQvtwj98csqG/metaculus-predicts-weak-agi-in-2-years-and-agi-in-10#comments