A LOT depends on how you model the counterfactual of this poll being real and having consequences. I STRONGLY predict that 90+% of people who are given the poll, along with enough evidence that they believe the consequences are real, will pick red. Personal safety aligns with back-of-the-envelope calculations here—unless you can be pretty sure of meeting the blue threshold, you’re basically committing suicide by picking blue. And if it’s well over 50% blue without you, you may as well choose red then, too.
There IS a superrationality argument for blue, in the case where you model that you’re sufficiently similar to 50%+ of people that you will naturally vote in a block due to shared priors and models. Then voting blue to save those dissimilar people who voted red may be justified. I don’t believe this holds for myself, nor any sizeable subset of humans.
I don’t share your intuition here. I think many people would see blue as the “band together” option and would have confidence that others will do the same. For the average responder, the question would reduce to “choose blue to signal trust in humanity, choose red to signal selfish cowardice”.
“Innate faith in human compassion, especially in a crisis” is the co-ordination mechanism, and I think there is pretty strong support for that notion if you look at how we respond to crises in real life and how we depict them in fiction. That is the narrative we tell ourselves at least, but narrative is what’s important here.
I would be surprised if blue was less than 30%, and would predict around 60%.
A LOT depends on how you model the counterfactual of this poll being real and having consequences. I STRONGLY predict that 90+% of people who are given the poll, along with enough evidence that they believe the consequences are real, will pick red. Personal safety aligns with back-of-the-envelope calculations here—unless you can be pretty sure of meeting the blue threshold, you’re basically committing suicide by picking blue. And if it’s well over 50% blue without you, you may as well choose red then, too.
There IS a superrationality argument for blue, in the case where you model that you’re sufficiently similar to 50%+ of people that you will naturally vote in a block due to shared priors and models. Then voting blue to save those dissimilar people who voted red may be justified. I don’t believe this holds for myself, nor any sizeable subset of humans.
I don’t share your intuition here. I think many people would see blue as the “band together” option and would have confidence that others will do the same. For the average responder, the question would reduce to “choose blue to signal trust in humanity, choose red to signal selfish cowardice”.
“Innate faith in human compassion, especially in a crisis” is the co-ordination mechanism, and I think there is pretty strong support for that notion if you look at how we respond to crises in real life and how we depict them in fiction. That is the narrative we tell ourselves at least, but narrative is what’s important here.
I would be surprised if blue was less than 30%, and would predict around 60%.