I remember a situation from a few months ago when a female friend of mine was being romantically pursued by a guy who she was not even slightly interested in. He had indicated to a few of her friends that he was going to ask her out, and they had told him that she was certainly going to say no. She liked someone else, she wasn’t interested in you, etc. He responded by making a poker analogy, and saying that if he didn’t try, the probability of success was zero. They pointed out that the plan was not going to work, and he was going to come off looking really stupid. Don’t forget to factor the negative penalties of plans not working into your expected utility calculations.
I remember a situation from a few months ago when a female friend of mine was being romantically pursued by a guy who she was not even slightly interested in. He had indicated to a few of her friends that he was going to ask her out, and they had told him that she was certainly going to say no. She liked someone else, she wasn’t interested in you, etc. He responded by making a poker analogy, and saying that if he didn’t try, the probability of success was zero. They pointed out that the plan was not going to work, and he was going to come off looking really stupid. Don’t forget to factor the negative penalties of plans not working into your expected utility calculations.