Cryonics being possible given advanced technology is the default mainline
probability. But the probability of being revived given that you prepare to be
cryo-preserved is not.
That’s exactly what I meant. A lot of practical things can go wrong even if our beliefs about the brain are entirely correct. Rationality, Cryonics and Pascal’s Wager gives a probability of 0.228 which is, indeed, not that improbable, but it is still less than 50%.
I conclude, then, that the supposedly useless heuristic described above
It has a small probability of success, but we should pursue it, because the
probability if we don’t try is zero
is useless only if the probability of success is very small
That’s exactly what I meant. A lot of practical things can go wrong even if our beliefs about the brain are entirely correct. Rationality, Cryonics and Pascal’s Wager gives a probability of 0.228 which is, indeed, not that improbable, but it is still less than 50%.
I conclude, then, that the supposedly useless heuristic described above
is useless only if the probability of success is very small