It is interesting how media can’t understand difference between interval (0, 1000) and end date of the interval. Hawking said (again) that we will certainly go extinct in 1000 years. It seems to be true but misleading claim, as median time until extinction here is only 500 years, and 10 per cent it will happen in next century (assuming linear distribution of probability density, which is not true also). As result, media thinks that we need space colonies only 999 years from now, as the extinction has exact date at 1000. Basically the message is “don’t do anything, it is so remote future”.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/17/health/hawking-humanity-trnd/
Update: In fact he said following: “Although the chance of a disaster to planet Earth in a given year may be quite low, it adds up over time, and becomes a near certainty in the next 1,000 or 10,000 years,” and it is still unclear. So it could be near certainty in 1000 year, - or—it could be near certainty between 1000 and 10 000 years.
Update: In fact he said following: “Although the chance of a disaster to planet Earth in a given year may be quite low, it adds up over time, and becomes a near certainty in the next 1,000 or 10,000 years,” and it is still unclear.
To me it doesn’t seem unclear but the claim seem uncertainty attached to it.
It looks like that Hawking said the following: One of the 2 statements are true with equal probability:
A) extinction date is randomly chosen from interval (0, 1000)
B) extinction date is randomly chosen from interval (0, 10 000)
It is a little bit complex but correct way to express x-risks expectation.
And CNN interpreted it as extinction will happen after 1000, which is not following from what he said, as it completely excludes (0, 1000) variant, which has 55 per cent probability in Hawking claim. It looks like CNN thought that Hawking said: extinction date will be between (1000, 10 000). So after 1000 years from now we should prepare to it.
It is interesting how media can’t understand difference between interval (0, 1000) and end date of the interval. Hawking said (again) that we will certainly go extinct in 1000 years. It seems to be true but misleading claim, as median time until extinction here is only 500 years, and 10 per cent it will happen in next century (assuming linear distribution of probability density, which is not true also). As result, media thinks that we need space colonies only 999 years from now, as the extinction has exact date at 1000. Basically the message is “don’t do anything, it is so remote future”. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/17/health/hawking-humanity-trnd/
Update: In fact he said following: “Although the chance of a disaster to planet Earth in a given year may be quite low, it adds up over time, and becomes a near certainty in the next 1,000 or 10,000 years,” and it is still unclear. So it could be near certainty in 1000 year, - or—it could be near certainty between 1000 and 10 000 years.
To me it doesn’t seem unclear but the claim seem uncertainty attached to it.
It looks like that Hawking said the following: One of the 2 statements are true with equal probability:
A) extinction date is randomly chosen from interval (0, 1000)
B) extinction date is randomly chosen from interval (0, 10 000)
It is a little bit complex but correct way to express x-risks expectation.
And CNN interpreted it as extinction will happen after 1000, which is not following from what he said, as it completely excludes (0, 1000) variant, which has 55 per cent probability in Hawking claim. It looks like CNN thought that Hawking said: extinction date will be between (1000, 10 000). So after 1000 years from now we should prepare to it.