How did you make the decision to wear seat belts then? If it is because you were taught to at a young age, or it is the law, then can you think of any safety precaution you take (or don’t take) because it prevents or mitigates a problem that you believe would have less than 50% chance of occurring any particular time you do not take the precaution?
Then you’re not explicitly assigning probabilities.
Often we make decisions based on our vague feelings of uncertainty, which are difficult to describe as a probability that could be communicated to others or explicitly analyzed mathematically. This difficulty is a failure of introspection, but the uncertainty we feel does somewhat approximate Bayesian probability theory. Many biases represent the limits of this approximation.
How did you make the decision to wear seat belts then? If it is because you were taught to at a young age, or it is the law, then can you think of any safety precaution you take (or don’t take) because it prevents or mitigates a problem that you believe would have less than 50% chance of occurring any particular time you do not take the precaution?
Often we make decisions based on our vague feelings of uncertainty, which are difficult to describe as a probability that could be communicated to others or explicitly analyzed mathematically. This difficulty is a failure of introspection, but the uncertainty we feel does somewhat approximate Bayesian probability theory. Many biases represent the limits of this approximation.