I meant the people who reported 99% chances, mostly. The Fermi paradox is probably good info.
One thing I do worry about is if some anthropic idea (self-indication principle) may favor densely populated universes over sparsely populated universes. Something like that is true in this model, but I’m not sure it could work (probability of intelligent life is a matter of logical necessity, what other implications do you get if you apply this model of anthropic reasoning to uncertain logical necessities?) and even if it does it should only imply a serious probability for aliens in the observable universe, not the galaxy.
I meant the people who reported 99% chances, mostly. The Fermi paradox is probably good info.
One thing I do worry about is if some anthropic idea (self-indication principle) may favor densely populated universes over sparsely populated universes. Something like that is true in this model, but I’m not sure it could work (probability of intelligent life is a matter of logical necessity, what other implications do you get if you apply this model of anthropic reasoning to uncertain logical necessities?) and even if it does it should only imply a serious probability for aliens in the observable universe, not the galaxy.